Charm City Baltimore Real Estate: Baltimore, Maryland Real Estate & Homes

The holiday spirit has ebbed away, and the outdoor lights are down (well, except at my neighbor’s house). Its time to take a look forward at the year to come. For the record, I do believe that the housing market will begin to recover this year — but there are even greater issues in play that will affect the home buyer and home seller for years to come. One of those is a brewing controversy over data mining and the internet.

The world wide web revolutionized real estate over the last decade. Lots of people, even those not interested in purchasing a home, love to surf home listing sites to see what their neighbor is asking for their home, or find evidence for appealing their tax assessment, or just to spend a spring afternoon visiting a few open houses. We take it for granted now that many websites will have home listings, virtual tours, value estimates, etc. That may not last much longer.

Here’s why: when the real estate business started, each broker controlled their own listings. If you were searching for a home, you would have to either rely on the yard signs you saw, or visit all your neighborhood real estate offices and ask to see their listing book. This meant you would sit down with a real estate salesperson and literally page through a book to become educated on what properties were available for purchase.

The Multiple Listing Services (MLS) in communities around the nation developed as a way to make it easier for home buyers and home sellers to get together. Each real estate broker who joined the MLS agreed to cooperate with other brokers in the region to show and sell each others’ listings. In exchange, they also agreed to split their commissions on cooperative sales. While this agreement made it easier to become educated on what was available, the public still did not have easy access to MLS listings. You would still have to go to one broker’s office and sit down with a Realtor, but that salesperson could show you 99% of what was for sale in the area. So, you saved time and trouble.

This is essentially what buyers had to do at the dawn of the internet age, although the listing book had been computerized. You and the Realtor would sit down at the computer or go over listing printouts from the MLS. This control over listing data reflected the fact that it is the essential business resource for our industry. Our listing information is the only “product” we make. We then provide the “service” of assisting home buyers and home sellers to negotiate and create a transaction that transfers property from one owner to another.

With the growth of the Web, MLS organizations and individual brokers took this business asset — the listing information — and put it online to make it easier still for buyers and sellers to become educated on what property was for sale. Through agreements with the MLS, other websites bought the right to display this information, too, and so you had the birth of Trulia, Zillow, and dozens of other sites that simply re-posted listing information. They were not brokers and did not create any new listings, so they added other services and trinkets to lure you to their site over their competition’s website. Like many other internet-based businesses, these websites were constantly looking for that special method to earn money: to draw traffic that advertisers would pay for, or to become so influential that the real estate industry itself would have to pay attention.

Here’s where the problems begin. More and more of these websites have found interesting ways to manipulate the listing data, and some have begun displaying this information in ways that makes it unclear who the original listing broker is. Others have begun enrolling potential buyers and selling those names back to Realtors, or gotten broker’s licenses and started asking for a percentage of the commissions from successful transactions where they referred the buyer. Brokers began to wake up to the fact that they have, to a great degree, lost control of their most basic business resource.

There is a growing movement among some brokers to reclaim this control, by once again restricting access to their listing data. If this trend continues and gains momentum, many of these third-party websites will disappear, and others may not be able to display all the properties available for sale in a particular region. Instead of visiting several broker offices, as buyers in the past needed to do, in the future they might have to visit a couple of different websites to be able to find all of the homes for sale. The problem of inaccurate listing data will grow, which can be very frustrating to potential buyers.

As always, a professional Realtor is your best guide as this marketplace changes and evolves.

No one has been more affected by the last few years of real estate devastation than my old friends, the Sellers. If its been more than five years since you’ve sold property, then you really need to forget much of what you thought you knew about the process. Its a new world out here. So as we approach the beginning of the Autumn selling season, here are four points that every Seller needs to take to heart.

1. You were never as rich as “they” said you were. Who are “they”? Appraisers, bankers, even the algorithm at Zillow… but its not their fault. In most cases (except probably Zillow) they were giving you valuations on your home based on what was current market price. Unfortunately, most property owners took this inflated value and carved it in stone under the heading of “Personal Net Worth” and — even to this day — are having a difficult time adjusting to the fact that those monumental numbers just are not true. But if you own a stock and you want to sell it, you ask the question, “What is Triple Y Corporation stock selling for today?” Not last year. Not in 2007. If you try to place a sell order on Triple Y that is based on what the stock sold for in 2007, your stock broker will laugh you out of the office.

Selling your home works exactly the same way. And just like the stock market, that valuation is different today than it was three months ago, as values have continued to go down in most markets. If you list your home for sale today, you need to think about what the value of it is TODAY, and kiss farewell to what you thought it was worth yesterday. You’ll also likely have to re-think the asking price if you should be on the market in two months, because the market may continue to decline.

2. You are selling a product and a lifestyle — not just a house. You need to find out what the competition looks like. Get your Realtor to take you through the properties that you’re going to compete with in the marketplace — certainly every one of your potential Buyers will have seen them, so you need to see them too. The Buyer doesn’t really care how you’ve lived in the house, they want to see how they might be able to live if they bought your house. By comparing your home to the competition, you get to see the competing visions that are out there, and you can craft your product presentation to outshine the rest. This is the basic philosophy of staging, and you can use it to varying degrees, but if you’re not actively trying to change the way you think about and look at your home and trying to see it through the eyes of the Buyers who tour it, your home will likely be one of those that sit on the market for awhile, with multiple price reductions, and a sales price much lower than you had hoped.

3.  Some of your competition isn’t trying to turn a profit. Now, this is a tough one to wrap your head around if you’re a Seller. Every individual Seller approaches a real estate transaction with visions of finally-realized equity with which they will fund something, whether its a bigger house purchase, a downsizing with money left over for a new toy or a beefed up IRA, or at the very least, a clean balance sheet with debts paid off. In this market a significant number — if not a majority — of your competitors have already given up on making a profit. These could be residents approved for a short sale, or banks and mortgage companies — even the government — selling foreclosures, or people who have been on the market so long that they are desperate just to get to that new job in another city. This is yet another argument for getting to know your competition, and if you can’t compete with their prices, then figure that out before you list and save yourself a lot of heartache.

4. Buyers don’t shop for homes the way they used to. The process that Buyers use to become educated on the market has been completely revolutionized in the last few years. The National Association of Realtors conducts a study every year that asks successful homebuyers questions about the process of buying their home. The results are important because they point out the most successful ways to market a home — and marketing a home is THE most important task that a listing agent performs. In just the last decade, the percentage of Buyers who found the home they purchased on the Internet has skyrocketed from 8% to 37%. Those who found it in print advertising, such as newspapers, has gone from 7% down to only 2%, and if you look just at those slick homebuyer magazines, the current number is below 1%. Even the trusty yard sign, which accounted for 15% of discoveries in 2001 has declined to just 11%.

So, what does this mean if you’re the Seller? It means that among the most important qualities you need to look for when selecting a listing agent is that agent’s comfort level with mobile technology and the Web, because that is where most homebuyers are hanging out, looking around, and eventually deciding on which homes to visit. And don’t doubt that you DO need an agent. If you combine the Buyers who found their homes on the Internet and those who found them through the recommendation of their agent, you account for 75% of successful home purchases in 2010.

That’s a chunk of the marketplace that you must be able to access if you wish to sell your home in 2011.

The internet has certainly revolutionized the way that people shop for real estate. It has also made it much more likely that inaccurate, out-of-date, and even fraudulent information makes it into your inbox. Here’s a primer for the homebuyer in the Internet age.

The MLS
Before the Internet was born, listings were literally kept in a book — available at each real estate office — containing the listings that office’s agents were presenting to the public. Searching for a home meant a lot of driving around looking for signs, visiting offices to look at the listing books, and a reliance upon the agent knowing what was available that met your criteria.

Once the Internet was widely available, the real estate industry was one of the earliest players and multiple listing services quickly got their member brokers to agree to make everyone’s listings available to the general public. Brokers also wanted to make the MLS available on their own websites, and so an Internet Data Exchange agreement let the number of sites who carried listing data multiply quickly. National search sites, such as REMAX.com and Realtor.com, started to bring together listing data from all across the country. Others came up with the idea to offer computerized property evaluation services, and another group of sites let customers who had visited certain properties blog about their impressions of it, so that the next buyers who came along could read about the property’s weaknesses and strengths without stepping foot inside it themselves. The modern Internet is bulging at its virtual seams with real estate related data of all kinds.

Buyer Beware
The problem is that some of that information is garbage. While many sites are great at importing new data, old data sits around long after its useful. Buyers I work with will often come to me with questions about a property they found on one website, but not on another. When I investigate on the MLS directly, I’ll find that the property isn’t actually for sale. Sometimes it was withdrawn, or the listing expired, months ago. In one recent case, the property had been sold two years earlier!

Another major source of inaccurate information are the property evaluation websites. Several recent studies have found large margins of error in these computerized estimates of value. On the largest of these sites, their zesty evaluations were routinely off by over 7%, and you had a one in eleven chance that your estimate would be off by a whopping 25% or more. Now, if your house is worth $200,000, a 7% routine error equals $14,000!

The newest trend in real estate sites are the blogging sites where, in theory, you learn details about properties that the bloggers have visited. However, there are no methods to prove that these visits actually took place, or that the blogger might not actually be the seller of a competing property down the block who went online to trash the competition.

The Solution
The best way to make sure you do not use wrong information in your home search is to ask your real estate professional for the sites that offer data of the highest integrity. In my practice, the sites I recommend are all ones that I know import information on a daily basis directly from our MLS and routinely remove listings that are sold, withdrawn and expired, such as the two largest national sites I’ve mentioned above, Realtor.com and REMAX.com. If you’re looking primarily for local data, then the best site is HomesDatabase.com.

A new service from our local MLS offers even better data, however. Many local real estate agents have subscribed to Listingbook, which taps directly into the very same MLS data that agents themselves use. I’ve been making this available to my buyers for about six months, with great satisfaction. Data is refreshed every 15 minutes, and the interface is intuitive and flexible. You’ll find many links here on www.charmcityrealestate.com that will allow you to open your own search using Listingbook. (Including that one!)

You have to wonder if the American public has truly entered a post-reality era… maybe all the fake reality shows on television have finally had their mind numbing effects, proving to anyone who was paying attention that reality isn’t and it is all based on your attitude.

That’s about the only conclusion you can draw from the result of a recent poll by Harris Interactive, commissioned by our old friends at Zillow.com. They got answers from 1,361 homeowners across the country, and (as reported in a recent Wall Street Journal) a whopping 62% of the respondents thought that the value of their home had actually increased in the previous 12 months.

That’s right. INCREASED.

Never mind that Zillow’s own terribly flawed and unreliable data (see one of our previous posts) shows that 77% of all homes in the US depreciated in value over the same time period. The poll was conducted between June 30 and July 2, 2008, so maybe people’s brains were just overheated from hot summer weather. But 56% of the respondents also said that they would be spending money to improve their “more valuable” properties over the next six months.

The “can’t happen to me” psychosis gets even deeper when you probe the public attitude toward the foreclosure crisis. Even though 90% of the respondents knew that foreclosures were occurring in their local market and 80% felt that the rate of foreclosures would remain steady over the next six months… a full 48% of them opposed government efforts to assist such homeowners to stay in their homes.

What should those of us in the industry make out of such “Twilight Zone” attitudes? We will have to try harder to educate potential Sellers, and perhaps take them on preview tours of the competition to fight the idea that their property is the “best in the neighborhood.” Like addicts coming off of a pretty good high, homeowners still aren’t ready to go “cold turkey” and realize that real estate investments sometimes go down. Including their own. We can either support their addiction and continue to list properties at unrealistic prices, or be the ones to stage an intervention and tell them the truth.

I think our Code of Ethics compels us to be the truthteller.