Its mid-December, the darkest time of the year. Ancient cultures always had a Festival of Lights about this time of year, trying to lift spirits and look forward to the longer days and sunnier dispositions of spring.
So, perhaps it was a glimmer of light that came across the newswires this morning as the ZipRealty housing survey was released for November, showing that housing inventory in many metro areas, including Baltimore, shrank considerably for the month compared to inventory in October. Nationally, the traditional shrinkage of housing inventory from October to November averages just under two percent. But this year the national average was closer to 10%. The Baltimore numbers were just under 4% shrinkage.
Fewer homes on the market should result in some home price stabilization, especially as we move into spring. That, tied in with the pent-up demand I’m seeing in my practics — so many people just waiting… waiting for some kind of good news that will spur them to enter the market to sell, buy, or both — gives me some cautious optimism that once the bad news is all out we will have the beginnings of a recovery. That’s a holiday gift we could really put to use.
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Otterbein Townhome
Tucked away in one of Baltimore’s most historic neighborhoods, these townhomes were part of the rebirth of the Inner Harbor. Four finished levels, with private decks, fireplaces, a garage and off street parking, you won’t realize this quiet, leafy setting is really in the heart of it all! Two blocks from the harbor itself and convenient to trains, trolleys, subways and highways, a short walk to the convention center and both stadiums, this location offers the best in downtown living. The townhouse itself is fully modern, well organized space, and has been extremely well cared for. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by!
Offered at $489,900
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The housing market is in recession. Prices are falling at a record pace in year-over-year comparisons. Homeownership in America is declining.
These are the recent headlines, trumpeted in breathless tones on business cable channels and in heavy black type in newspapers. But this data is routinely reported in hindsight. It does not reflect what professionals around this area are experiencing every day: we’re all busier than we’ve been in a year.
Remember the credit crisis? Well, the loan officers I speak to are busy writing new loans and refinancing older loans. Some are finding it difficult to keep up with the pace of the new business coming in the door. Yes, they are working harder to provide underwriters with more documentation and there are fewer loan programs out there (thankfully the low documentation “liars loans” have been discontinued by most lenders), but people with decent credit scores and some money in the bank are able to get new loans. It sounds almost quaint and old-fashioned to ask that people actually be creditworthy… but perhaps that’s a sign of how far the industry had strayed from its roots during the recent boom.
The Baltimore resale market is picking up quite nicely, from my anecdotal evidence. My colleagues tell me they are busy with new buyers, as am I. We haven’t written many contracts yet, but homes are selling and I have no doubt that by March I’ll be submitting offers on homes for numerous clients currently becoming educated on what is out there for sale (which is taking a bit longer than usual since there’s more inventory to view).
So to the average consumer/homebuyer who has not yet decided to jump into the pool… c’mon in. The water’s getting warmer as spring arrives.
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Some interesting year-end figures: Long and Foster’s market share in Maryland actually increased in 2007 by 11 percent over the previous year. The largest locally owned company in the region, Long and Foster had a 25% market share, placing us even more firmly at Number One in Maryland. And despite the woes of the housing market, that share showed a double-digit increase. How did the competition fare? Second place ReMax had a 4.6% decline in market share to just 18%. Coldwell Banker had a surprisingly-small 11.5% of the market, and their figures showed a downward trend in the last three months of the year, to just 10.74% in December. Everyone else is either in single digits, or fractions of a percent.
Its no wonder that the last few months have seen smaller competitors close their doors. Slow markets tend to weed out the weak players, but I’d like to believe that we’re gaining market share because of the stability and superior service that larger brokers offer their clients. And everyone wants to choose a winner, especially when the winner gets to that place by smart, fair, and popular policies.
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