Charm City Baltimore Real Estate: Baltimore, Maryland Real Estate & Homes

As we head into spring, there’s some great news brewing in the housing market. But, don’t take my word for it, here’s what other news sources have to say.

First, the RE/MAX National Housing Report for March put it best:  “For the first time in 18 months, home prices in February rose higher… Prices in the 53 cities surveyed by the RE/MAX National Housing Report rose by 1.1% over February 2011. Home sales were even higher, up 8.7% from one year ago. With a positive sales trend of 8 straight months above the previous year, it’s looking like 2012 will witness a very strong home-selling season.”

That should be enough reason to set off some fireworks. But, there’s more. The Huffington Post uploaded an article on the housing market in early April under the headline, “Renting a Home Costs 15 Percent More Than Buying One.” That turns common wisdom on its head, since historically renting a home has been as much as 10 percent cheaper than owning one.

Not anymore. Because of very low vacancy rates — at a ten year low — rental rates have skyrocketed. In fact, a recent report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition found that it would take a minimum wage worker 100 hours of work per week just to afford rent. Even the average American renter, making a little over $14 per hour, needs a 29 percent raise to be able to afford an average apartment and have enough money left over for other expenses. Ready to ask your boss for a 29% raise?

With mortgage rates still very low for qualified buyers, its clearly time to buy. The website rentorbuybaltimore.com recently compared the costs of buying a $200,000 home against renting a $2,000 per month apartment — not uncommon these days in the harbor neighborhoods. The results, according to a New York Times calculator, showed that after just two years buying was better than renting. After five years, buying that home saved nearly $64,000 over renting.

Buyers are returning to the Baltimore area home market in droves this spring. There are even multiple offers coming in on desirable homes. If you were waiting for signs that the housing crash was over, then this is your time.

As 2011 winds down, there are only a few things we can know for sure. One of those things is that the real estate market will continue to be a major topic of concern and conversation in 2012. With a growth in consumer confidence in November, continued low interest rates, and a slight increase in activity in the market this December, there is more than a glimmer of hope that the new year will finally (finally!) bring some welcome relief to housing which will aid the economic recovery.

So, with that hope in mind, here are a series of questions you might ask yourself this New Year’s Eve to help you decide if 2012 is the year that you should buy a home.

How long do you anticipate being in Baltimore?

The average American homeowner stays in their home 5-7 years. If you think that because of your job, education, or family life that you will not be in the region for a minimum of 3 years, then perhaps renting makes more sense for you. If, however, you don’t foresee a relocation within that timeframe, then you should definitely consider buying over renting.

Where do you want to live?

If you love the popular neighborhoods within walking distance to the Inner Harbor, Fells Point, O’Donnell Square, the Can Company, or other regional attractions, then you will be paying top dollar to rent. Of the 41 rental apartments listed in those areas on October 31, the average rent was $2,000 per month.  Most landlords will require that you provide a first and last month’s rent, pet deposit (if you own a small pet), fees for the Realtor® and for your credit report(s). You could easily be writing checks for more than $4,500 just to secure that prime rental you want. A $2,000 monthly rent means you will also be paying your landlord $24,000 without having any equity, and no housing-related tax deductions on your Federal income tax return.

What life changes may happen during that time: will you marry? Have children?

Nobody has a crystal ball, but most first-time buyers are considering the purchase for specific reasons. Perhaps they feel that they have reached a point in their lives where they want to start a family. Some may be far from settling down in the marital sense, but have had a landlord raise the rent every year and want some kind of security in their home. There are too many motivations to list, so what is the impulse in your life that is making you consider this move? Most likely you anticipate a change in lifestyle that will impact your daily routine for a few years. How much living space will that require? What other amenities would you want? Can you see that new life taking place in a home that someone else owns?

How long have you been in your job, and do you feel secure in it?

One of the most common reasons that first-time buyers have been hesitating to enter the housing market is uncertainty over the depth of the economic downturn, and whether their job is secure. Certainly if you work for a new start-up company, or if you have only been in your job a few months, this economy might not be too kind to your source of income. Buying a home might not make sense.
But in this region, there are a fair number of institutions and agencies of government — state, local and Federal — that provide stable, secure employment year after year. If you are in that situation, then you are in a prime position to capitalize on this most affordable housing market.

Do you believe that home prices in this region have stabilized?

Statistics for the Baltimore-Washington metro areas say “yes, they have.” It appears that we have hit a rough bottom that will bounce around a bit, but there isn’t any significant price depreciation at this time. Our inventory of homes for sale is decreasing, and the number of transactions are beginning to slowly increase. With supply falling and demand beginning to move up, basic economics would argue that we should start to see some modest price increases by this time next year. Mortgages are hovering at historic lows, in the 4% range. Add that to the mix, and it would seem that the most affordable time to jump into the housing market is now.

If home prices stabilized but did not increase over the next three years, would you be comfortable with the investment?

Whether you invest in stocks, pork bellies, or real estate, most professionals encourage the individual investor to take a long term view and not be too concerned about daily results. In real estate, while there is no market indicator to follow, there can be press releases every few days with contradictory results based on different locations. The importance of each bit of data can be confusing. Past long term performance of real estate as an investment indicates you should see a small rise in your home’s value over that period. But even if prices stay level, by making your monthly mortgage payments you will have been building equity in the property and you will have been reaping tax benefits from being a homeowner. You will not have been stuffing your money into someone else’s bank account! There are several online calculators to help you compare the economic advantage of buying over renting. I link to a particularly good one at www.rentorbuybaltimore.com.

Did you know that home ownership has been the largest source of individual wealth in American history?

Its true, and there have been many studies that quantified it over time. Buying a home is the largest monetary transaction that most people ever experience, and its the growth in equity in their home that provides the average American’s greatest source of personal net worth. As we move through the 21st Century, with retirement programs in jeopardy, home ownership and that source of wealth will become even more important in determining a retiree’s quality of life after leaving their jobs.

Would having professional assistance make you feel more comfortable in going through this evaluation process?

While most people buy and sell homes only a few times in their lives, professional Realtors® guide their clients through many such transactions every year. We can help you avoid some of the most common pitfalls, and represent your interests through the intense negotiations that can sometimes take place to deal with important issues. We can also recommend ethical, competent professionals to build a team — mortgage officers, title officers, home inspectors, and more — to make sure you have the best people working on your behalf.

However you decide to proceed in 2012, I hope you have a wonderful year and that its the first of many.

No one has been more affected by the last few years of real estate devastation than my old friends, the Sellers. If its been more than five years since you’ve sold property, then you really need to forget much of what you thought you knew about the process. Its a new world out here. So as we approach the beginning of the Autumn selling season, here are four points that every Seller needs to take to heart.

1. You were never as rich as “they” said you were. Who are “they”? Appraisers, bankers, even the algorithm at Zillow… but its not their fault. In most cases (except probably Zillow) they were giving you valuations on your home based on what was current market price. Unfortunately, most property owners took this inflated value and carved it in stone under the heading of “Personal Net Worth” and — even to this day — are having a difficult time adjusting to the fact that those monumental numbers just are not true. But if you own a stock and you want to sell it, you ask the question, “What is Triple Y Corporation stock selling for today?” Not last year. Not in 2007. If you try to place a sell order on Triple Y that is based on what the stock sold for in 2007, your stock broker will laugh you out of the office.

Selling your home works exactly the same way. And just like the stock market, that valuation is different today than it was three months ago, as values have continued to go down in most markets. If you list your home for sale today, you need to think about what the value of it is TODAY, and kiss farewell to what you thought it was worth yesterday. You’ll also likely have to re-think the asking price if you should be on the market in two months, because the market may continue to decline.

2. You are selling a product and a lifestyle — not just a house. You need to find out what the competition looks like. Get your Realtor to take you through the properties that you’re going to compete with in the marketplace — certainly every one of your potential Buyers will have seen them, so you need to see them too. The Buyer doesn’t really care how you’ve lived in the house, they want to see how they might be able to live if they bought your house. By comparing your home to the competition, you get to see the competing visions that are out there, and you can craft your product presentation to outshine the rest. This is the basic philosophy of staging, and you can use it to varying degrees, but if you’re not actively trying to change the way you think about and look at your home and trying to see it through the eyes of the Buyers who tour it, your home will likely be one of those that sit on the market for awhile, with multiple price reductions, and a sales price much lower than you had hoped.

3.  Some of your competition isn’t trying to turn a profit. Now, this is a tough one to wrap your head around if you’re a Seller. Every individual Seller approaches a real estate transaction with visions of finally-realized equity with which they will fund something, whether its a bigger house purchase, a downsizing with money left over for a new toy or a beefed up IRA, or at the very least, a clean balance sheet with debts paid off. In this market a significant number — if not a majority — of your competitors have already given up on making a profit. These could be residents approved for a short sale, or banks and mortgage companies — even the government — selling foreclosures, or people who have been on the market so long that they are desperate just to get to that new job in another city. This is yet another argument for getting to know your competition, and if you can’t compete with their prices, then figure that out before you list and save yourself a lot of heartache.

4. Buyers don’t shop for homes the way they used to. The process that Buyers use to become educated on the market has been completely revolutionized in the last few years. The National Association of Realtors conducts a study every year that asks successful homebuyers questions about the process of buying their home. The results are important because they point out the most successful ways to market a home — and marketing a home is THE most important task that a listing agent performs. In just the last decade, the percentage of Buyers who found the home they purchased on the Internet has skyrocketed from 8% to 37%. Those who found it in print advertising, such as newspapers, has gone from 7% down to only 2%, and if you look just at those slick homebuyer magazines, the current number is below 1%. Even the trusty yard sign, which accounted for 15% of discoveries in 2001 has declined to just 11%.

So, what does this mean if you’re the Seller? It means that among the most important qualities you need to look for when selecting a listing agent is that agent’s comfort level with mobile technology and the Web, because that is where most homebuyers are hanging out, looking around, and eventually deciding on which homes to visit. And don’t doubt that you DO need an agent. If you combine the Buyers who found their homes on the Internet and those who found them through the recommendation of their agent, you account for 75% of successful home purchases in 2010.

That’s a chunk of the marketplace that you must be able to access if you wish to sell your home in 2011.

Ever since the groundhog predicted an early spring, most of us have been eagerly waiting for the little guy to be proven right.  And while the weather makes it a day-to-day affair to know if winter is truly over, from the real estate data coming out lately it seems that spring truly has arrived early.

February 2011 statistics show that in the Baltimore region, home sales were up 7% over February of 2010.  Down in the Washington metro area, which includes nearby Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, pending home sales in February increased a whopping 33% over the same month a year earlier. The median home price in February 2011 in the DC region was $300,000, down from $309,000 the year before — but Baltimore’s median home price in February 2011 was $205,350, down from February 2010′s by 9.54%.  So, Baltimore metro still remains a much more affordable alternative for Washington-area homebuyers, even with price declines, and a lot of the activity here has come from DC residents looking for less expensive housing, a trend we expect to continue.

All of this is good news, unless you happen to be selling a home right now. From a seller’s perspective, the overriding issue is the number of distressed properties currently flooding the market and driving prices down. Most buyers enter the market eager to snap up a bargain, but not fully informed as to exactly what it means to them to buy a distressed property, or the differences between the types of distressed property currently on the market. So here’s a brief overview to get you up to speed.

The largest category of distressed properties include homes listed for sale that are “under water” — where the owner owes more than the house could currently sell for in the market.

Short sales are where a seller, who is under water, also doesn’t have the money to make up the difference and has to ask the lender to forgive the amount of the shortfall. Short sales get their name from this seller’s shortfall, not from the amount of time they take to settle — which is anything BUT short. Generally, the seller is still in the home and has listed the house as a short sale in consultation with their bank or institutional lender. The mortgage is still in place, as are all the investors who bought into that mortgage once it went to the private equity market. Sometimes there is a second mortgage, and yet another set of investors. Before a property can reach the settlement table and transfer to a new owner, the current seller has to negotiate a contract with a qualified buyer and then start to make the case to the lender(s) that he/she will require financial assistance to sell the property. If the lender(s) accept the fact that the seller is truly in distress, they then have to go to their investors and get them to agree to take the loss. All of this has to take place before the lender can notify the buyer if the contract offer will be acceptable — even if the contract has been signed by the seller.

This process is long and tedious. Buyers and their agents can only wait on the sidelines while the lender(s) and investors  go back and forth with the current owner to satisfy all the paperwork requirements. In today’s market it is not unusual for a short sale to take more than three months to settle, nor is it uncommon for a buyer to wait three months to discover that their offer will not be accepted by the lender at all. Most first-time buyers, who are dealing with a landlord who needs a specific date upon which his rental apartment will be vacant, cannot consider short sales as a viable option.

Foreclosures are where the lender has evicted the previous owner, passed the loss along to the investors who are now out of the picture, and has taken ownership of the property. Foreclosures are usually listed for less than market price, which is why they tend to drive down property values in the area.

Foreclosures present a completely different set of challenges from the buyer’s perspective. With the previous owner and the investors gone, the chain of authority for decision making is much clearer, but the bureaucratic nature of most lenders removes much of the give and take you’d find in a real negotiation. Listing prices are usually set with a businesslike efficiency, and routinely reduced on a four to six week schedule if no qualified buyer has surfaced. In between reductions, there is usually little flexibility on price. Many buyers think the bank will be desperate to negotiate and get rid of the property, only to have their opening low offer rejected in short order because it is too far below the current listing price.

A majority of foreclosures also need some level of renovation before they can be occupied. While this can be a great way to get a newly renovated house at a good price, many first time buyers are not ready to handle the purchase experience and then jump immediately into working with a contractor to complete a four to six week renovation.

If you’re a buyer in this market, do your homework, and you can truly use the current distress to your advantage and end up with equity in your new home from day one. But be realistic about your goals and your abilities, and if you don’t think your life will allow you to deal with the uncertainties of a short sale or the responsibilities of a renovation, stick to conventional non-distressed listings with individual sellers where the timeframe and the purchasing process is much more predictable.

For several years, the answer for many first time buyers was “rent.” That may be changing.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

For the last few years, there’s been a real decision for consumers, especially younger consumers who might never have owned a home before, as to whether it made economic sense to buy a home. Home prices have generally fallen all over the country since 2006 or 2007, depending on your region, and many buyers decided that the possibility of buying a house as it was losing value was too scary from their perspective. Some consumers who were homeowners and had to move for their job sold their home and rented in their new city.

The Rent vs. Buy contest is now beginning to tilt back toward the Buy side in many areas. Trulia, the well-known real estate website, publishes a Rent vs. Buy Index every three months. On that list, they rank the fifty largest metro areas in the country, based on a ratio comparing the costs of home ownership with the average cost to rent. In their First Quarter 2011 Index, thirty-six of the fifty regions qualified for the “Much Less Expensive to Buy than to Rent” classification, including Baltimore (#11) and Washington (#13).

Renting a home in this region has gotten comparatively more expensive in the last few years as vacancy rates have declined and landlords have enjoyed stiff competition for their properties. But there are also several reasons why now may be the best time in many years to consider purchasing a home.

1. Prices in the greater Baltimore-Washington region have begun to stabilize. Especially on the Washington DC end of the region, as prices in the District have actually increased 8% in the last two years. One of the biggest advantages Baltimore had in the last decade was its affordability when compared to Washington. If prices have begun to rise in DC, Baltimore will once again start to look like the bargain it still is (even with much publicized commuter rail problems between the two cities).

2. Interest rates have started to rise, and are about .5% higher than at their low point last fall. We’ve been hearing about how interest rates have tumbled to low points not seen in fifty years, and while they continued to fall or held steady, there was no motivation to buy. In fact, many buyers watched falling home prices and decided to wait, no matter what the interest rates were doing. But now, with prices starting to stabilize and interest rates actually rising again, we may be at the most affordable point in the cycle.

3. Interest rates are predicted to be yet another 1% higher by the end of 2011. For an idea of what that might mean to a potential buyer, I used one of my own current listings and calculated the principal and interest payment that would be available today to a qualified buyer, and then did the same calculation adding 1% to the interest rate. With everything else staying the same, the mortgage payment went up by about 5%. On a $1,500 a month payment at today’s rate, that means the buyer will pay another $900 every year just on principal and interest on their loan.

To me, that says it may be time to get off the rent bandwagon and start looking to cash in on the bargains that the housing crisis has created.

Every real estate agent I know is thankful that 2010 is nearly over. When the year began there was a lot of hope that the housing market would begin to recover by year’s end, and the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit was stirring people to buy — boosting that hope.

But when that credit expired, hopes for the recovery began to expire as well. One of the hottest summers in memory kept people inside, and the economic news kept us all sweating. Late summer and early autumn sales numbers retreated back to levels that were equal to the worst of the housing slump.

Never mind that housing prices continued to fall and started to look like good values again, or that mortgage interest rates had fallen to levels that hadn’t been seen since our grandparents had been buying homes. No amount of good news could convince the buying public that it was time to make a purchase.

One of the most important trends of 2010 is only now beginning to become plain: the huge number of properties in distress — either 90+ days late on the mortgage, listed as a short sale, in pre-foreclosure, or actually foreclosed upon and bank-owned — was creating a large “shadow inventory” of homes that lenders were not listing for sale because buyers were not absorbing the distressed properties that already were on the market.

There are a couple of sources for this information. In late November, CoreLogic released a report on the large increase in the “shadow inventory” in 2010. As of August, there were 2.1 million units of housing classified as being in that shadowy group, up more than 10% from the previous year. When added to the 4.2 million “visible” units currently for sale, that constitutes a distressed property glut that isn’t moving. According to CoreLogic’s report, Maryland has a two-year supply of such distressed properties; the figure for Baltimore-Towson is only slightly better, with an 18-month supply.

While the sharp and rapid rise in the number of properties included in this category is alarming, at the same time overall sales figures were falling, and the proportion of distressed homes within the number being sold also fell. According to the National Association of Realtors’ 2010 Homebuyer Survey, only four percent of buyers purchased a home that would be categorized as “distressed.” Nearly 40% of those buyers did not even consider a distressed property among their home choices. Of the remaining 60% who at least considered such a home, one-third decided against it because the process of dealing with the lender as seller was too difficult or complex. One-fourth decided against it because the house was in poor condition; the remaining buyers just couldn’t find a distressed property that they liked.

What does this mean? Different professionals will come to different conclusions about this data, all of which was just released at the end of November, but here are two things that I believe are clear:

1. Buyers are learning that purchasing a distressed property, especially a short sale, is not easy and the vast majority of them are opting not to do so. Since half of all homebuyers in 2010 were first-time homebuyers, it might be that the uncertainty of how long it will take to settle such properties makes them impractical. While these first-time buyers don’t have a home to sell, they do have a landlord who requires a set amount of notice to get out of their lease — give notice too soon, they might become homeless; give notice too late, and they might be required to pay extra rent. If lenders want to make these distressed properties more attractive to these buyers they have to standardize the short sale process and get it done in a predictable amount of time.

2. Lenders may have to hold back millions of dollars worth of ‘shadow inventory’ well into the future. That means maintaining these properties in liveable condition for an extended period of time. Most lenders are NOT good at this. While they want to get their money back on these properties, they cannot flood the market with them all at once. Not only will that drive down the price on the properties for sale, it will also drive down the values on the neighboring properties, putting more homeowners “under water” and destabilizing the neighborhood. Since that lender may also hold the mortgages on a significant number of properties in the vicinity, flooding the market with bank-owned properties just drives down the values of the rest of their investment portfolio. So, while they won’t like the idea of holding on to these properties, self-interest will demand that they do.

There are many indicators that actually give hope for a much better 2011. I’ll cover those in January’s post.

I hope all of my readers have a peaceful holiday season, and best wishes for a prosperous new year!

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This month its time to answer a couple of the questions I’ve been getting from readers.

Q. My brother graduated from college five years ago and got a great loan to buy a house, using 100% financing and settlement assistance programs to pay most of his closing costs. Now I’m graduating in December, have got a sweet job lined up, and I’m being told no one can help me. What’s the deal?

A. Well, you’re a victim of the real estate meltdown. The generous financing programs that fueled the real estate boom of the last decade were one of the first things to go after it all came crashing down. The current market is on a different planet than the market of five years ago: some of the largest lenders in the country then have disappeared today, or been absorbed into bigger companies, and we’re going back to the “good old days” when you had to have some skin in the game.
There is some good news. FHA loan programs still allow you to buy a home with just 3.5% of the purchase price as a downpayment. Also, many of the settlement expense loan programs are still out there for qualified buyers. Try to keep your debts down (including student loans and credit cards) and save some money, and you should be able to purchase a home before you know it.

Q. I bought a house in Baltimore with something called a Ground Rent, but it was one that no one has been collecting. I’ve heard that there was a major change in the law that might allow me to get rid of it altogether, and I’ve also heard that wasn’t happening. I’m confused.

A. Ground rents confuse everyone, so you’re not alone. A ground rent is, literally, a lease payment for the right to use the land your house is on, like the old ‘quitrent’ you might have learned about in medieval history class! In Maryland, they generally are collected by someone, and can be bought out by a homeowner for a small payment and legal fees after which the deed is changed to Fee Simple (where you own the house and the land together). Some Maryland ground rents, you’re correct, are so old that no one is actively collecting them. Also, some were not redeemable at all.
After a small scandal a few years ago where someone actually lost their home for non-payment of the ground rent, the legislature tried to modernize and reform the ground rent system by creating a registry, and setting a deadline by which all ground rents had to be registered by the owner, or else they would become void.
Ground rent holders, however, have challenged that reform in court. So everything is on hold until that case is heard and judgment is rendered.

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2010 has been a challenge to the real estate market, not only because of the mortgage foreclosure crisis, the up-and-down recession, and the crisis in consumer confidence. Its also had some of the most extreme weather we’ve seen in a generation. How is that a challenge to the market?

Well, think about it… when the area was blanketed by back-to-back blizzards and many city streets were nearly impassable for two weeks, who could go out and show property? There are still damaged gutters and dormers scattered throughout the city’s neighborhoods. If the winter wasn’t bad enough, we’ve now had 40+ days this summer where the afternoon temperatures reached 90 degrees or more — many of them over 100 degrees. People stay inside when the heat is that oppressive and don’t go out and look at property.

Its a shame that buyers are letting the summer pass them by. Prices in the Baltimore area are still declining in many neighborhoods, and according to June statistics, Baltimore was one of only two major metro areas where prices had not stabilized or even started back up. Also, mortgage rates have declined to the lowest level that we’ve seen since 1971, when records were first kept on that statistic. So with prices declining and mortgage money cheap, why aren’t more buyers scooping up bargains?

Knowing the Score
A report came out this month that gave one possible reason. The economic troubles that we’ve been experiencing in this country have lowered significantly the average credit score. FICO, Inc., the company that calculates your credit score by combining data from the three large credit monitoring companies, announced that now 25.5% of consumers have a credit score of 599 or below. Before the recession, that figure generally averaged about 15%. That means that the great terms and historically low rates we’ve been seeing on the news are now unavailable to over a quarter of the population. Some analysts expect that before we truly recover from this recession that figure will rise to nearly one-third.

This is the segment of the population that, in the past, had to rely primarily on sub-prime mortgages to be able to get into the housing market. That area of lending has pretty much dried up in the last couple of years. Wells Fargo, currently the nation’s largest mortgage lender, made news this month by completely shutting down its sub-prime lending division and laying off over 3,000 employees. But although sub-prime now has a bad smell attached to it, remember that was primarily because of the way that Wall Street and large financial institutions had cut up, combined and re-packaged sub-prime mortgages into investment securities that weren’t at all clear on the level of risk they carried. Sub-prime lending had existed as a viable, profitable product for years before this recent mess started.

It doesn’t make sense that the housing market will ever regain robust health while we are content to tell 25-30% of the population that they are not able to own a home. If you are thinking of buying your own home, its important that you find out what your FICO score is, and how that will affect your status as a borrower. There are steps you can take to mend a low credit score, and a qualified mortgage officer or any of the local homebuyer counseling agencies can help you get started down that road.

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As we begin the last month of the year, I wanted to review where we stand in the real estate world, both nationally and in Maryland. 2010 will be a critical year for many of us, not only for those involved with property, but for the economy in general.

We’re certainly better off in this holiday season than we were a year ago. At the end of 2008 the country felt like a roller coaster car speeding down the tallest slope with no brake and nobody at the switch. Right now, 2009 looks like the turning point, with the economy beginning its long climb up the next hill, real estate stabilizing and just in need of a little push to get back on the track. But there are several issues looming for next year which will really determine how things go for the forseeable future. Here are a few lumps of coal for your stocking:

• A recent Washington Post article quoted a national survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association which found that more than 14 percent of borrowers were in trouble on their mortgage. That translates into 7.4 million households either currently delinquent or in the foreclosure process, the highest level this particular survey has ever recorded. That means we have not seen the peak of foreclosures — and with unemployment continuing to rise the numbers will only get worse.
• The Baltimore Sun, again using information from the Mortgage Bankers Association, reported that in Maryland roughly 10 percent of homeowners deemed good credit risks were in trouble with their mortgage. We’re not talking subprime mortgages here, the widely known source of the financial troubles, but prime borrowers. Again, blame rising unemployment which has destabilized the family budgets of people who have had a history of prudent financial management. In round numbers, this adds 77,000 homeowners to the list of those at least one month behind on their payments.
• Recent widely reported gains in regional home sales and a decrease in the housing inventory seems to be coming from short sales and foreclosures going under contract (and not necessarily going to settlement). From my anecdotal sources, traffic on regular owner-occupied listings — where a bank is not involved — is practically non-existent. This means that unless you’re in distress and buyers smell blood, they aren’t interested in seeing your listing. And, as we saw in the last item, there could be 77,000 more properties on that distressed list that we have to work through next spring.
• Most of our buyers, especially first time homebuyers,  in the last year have used FHA loans because they had the least stringent requirements for credit score and money down, and allowed more generous assistance from Sellers. So while the extension of the tax credits until the end of June, 2010 is a wonderful thing, it seems to be coming with a simultaneous tightening of credit from the FHA. The Washington Post reports that new FHA guidelines currently under development will raise the amount of money required from buyers — from 3.5% of the purchase price to 5% of purchase price — while cutting the allowed Seller contribution in half (from 6% to 3%). Not only will this shrink the pool of qualified buyers considerably, the FHA will also raise the capitalization required from lenders who issue FHA insured loans — a move that will most likely cut the number of loans available, if not the number of lenders who will consider issuing them.

Certainly the situation in residential real estate is worrysome as we head into the new year. But it might not be the most dangerous. Many experts are warning that the biggest problem looming on the horizon is in the commercial real estate market, as last week’s potential meltdown at Dubai World illustrated. While that particular sovereign wealth fund made European markets tremble, and we were told that the US market has little exposure to it, there are enough potential problems here at home to make us weak in the knees. Moody’s Investor Services reported last week that it expects the value of US commercial real estate to continue to fall well into 2011. This is on top of losses in this sector which have already totalled 42.9% since the peak in 2007. The total devaluation from the peak may well reach 55% before things begin to turn around.

The determining factor in these losses? Yep, you guessed it… unemployment. With fewer people working, office spaces and commercial spaces don’t need to be as big. Demand for office buildings drops, and fewer companies are growing and demanding more space from their landlords. Also, with more people encouraged to buy homes and get their tax credit, demand for multifamily rental units has also dropped, hurting landlords’ cash flow and making it more difficult for them to keep up on their mortgages.

Now, with all this coal in your stocking, remember you can’t really burn it anymore to lower your heating bills. Global warming, you know. Ho, ho, ho.