While the market has been flooded with good news in the last few weeks, an end of the year reflection still shows we have lots of work to do in the new year.
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commercial property
As we begin the last month of the year, I wanted to review where we stand in the real estate world, both nationally and in Maryland. 2010 will be a critical year for many of us, not only for those involved with property, but for the economy in general.
We’re certainly better off in this holiday season than we were a year ago. At the end of 2008 the country felt like a roller coaster car speeding down the tallest slope with no brake and nobody at the switch. Right now, 2009 looks like the turning point, with the economy beginning its long climb up the next hill, real estate stabilizing and just in need of a little push to get back on the track. But there are several issues looming for next year which will really determine how things go for the forseeable future. Here are a few lumps of coal for your stocking:
- A recent Washington Post article quoted a national survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association which found that more than 14 percent of borrowers were in trouble on their mortgage. That translates into 7.4 million households either currently delinquent or in the foreclosure process, the highest level this particular survey has ever recorded. That means we have not seen the peak of foreclosures — and with unemployment continuing to rise the numbers will only get worse.
- The Baltimore Sun, again using information from the Mortgage Bankers Association, reported that in Maryland roughly 10 percent of homeowners deemed good credit risks were in trouble with their mortgage. We’re not talking subprime mortgages here, the widely known source of the financial troubles, but prime borrowers. Again, blame rising unemployment which has destabilized the family budgets of people who have had a history of prudent financial management. In round numbers, this adds 77,000 homeowners to the list of those at least one month behind on their payments.
- Recent widely reported gains in regional home sales and a decrease in the housing inventory seems to be coming from short sales and foreclosures going under contract (and not necessarily going to settlement). From my anecdotal sources, traffic on regular owner-occupied listings — where a bank is not involved — is practically non-existent. This means that unless you’re in distress and buyers smell blood, they aren’t interested in seeing your listing. And, as we saw in the last item, there could be 77,000 more properties on that distressed list that we have to work through next spring.
- Most of our buyers, especially first time homebuyers, in the last year have used FHA loans because they had the least stringent requirements for credit score and money down, and allowed more generous assistance from Sellers. So while the extension of the tax credits until the end of June, 2010 is a wonderful thing, it seems to be coming with a simultaneous tightening of credit from the FHA. The Washington Post reports that new FHA guidelines currently under development will raise the amount of money required from buyers — from 3.5% of the purchase price to 5% of purchase price — while cutting the allowed Seller contribution in half (from 6% to 3%). Not only will this shrink the pool of qualified buyers considerably, the FHA will also raise the capitalization required from lenders who issue FHA insured loans — a move that will most likely cut the number of loans available, if not the number of lenders who will consider issuing them.
Certainly the situation in residential real estate is worrysome as we head into the new year. But it might not be the most dangerous. Many experts are warning that the biggest problem looming on the horizon is in the commercial real estate market, as last week’s potential meltdown at Dubai World illustrated. While that particular sovereign wealth fund made European markets tremble, and we were told that the US market has little exposure to it, there are enough potential problems here at home to make us weak in the knees. Moody’s Investor Services reported last week that it expects the value of US commercial real estate to continue to fall well into 2011. This is on top of losses in this sector which have already totalled 42.9% since the peak in 2007. The total devaluation from the peak may well reach 55% before things begin to turn around.
The determining factor in these losses? Yep, you guessed it… unemployment. With fewer people working, office spaces and commercial spaces don’t need to be as big. Demand for office buildings drops, and fewer companies are growing and demanding more space from their landlords. Also, with more people encouraged to buy homes and get their tax credit, demand for multifamily rental units has also dropped, hurting landlords’ cash flow and making it more difficult for them to keep up on their mortgages.
Now, with all this coal in your stocking, remember you can’t really burn it anymore to lower your heating bills. Global warming, you know. Ho, ho, ho.
The dog days are done. All of us who make a living in real estate are anticipating the Fall Market, and hoping that there will be one. We’ve had a nice run of very positive sales figures in the last few weeks. How much of that will continue into the Fall? How much of the activity we have seen is due to the Obama Administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers? There are many unanswered questions as we look toward the end of the year.
Most writers and colleagues are unanimous that the tax credit should be at least extended past its current expiration date at the end of November. Some go so far as to advocate for broadening it to all buyers, not just first timers.
For Baltimore, a recent trade article regarding commercial property was ominous. Baltimore was listed as one of the ten most likely markets to see a second meltdown in commercial real estate because of rising vacancy rates and more inventory, without a pickup in accompanying economic activity. As September arrives, we have many questions and concerns for Autumn. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that things go better than the doomsayers expect.
A recent Viewpoint essay by Keith Losoya and Paul Warren in the Baltimore Sun have brought to light and incredible and outrageous fact: “Baltimore is one of only three large cities in the United States where the disparity between residential and business property taxes is so great the homeowners are, in effect, subsidizing commercial enterprises.”
The real estate industry has been warning the government of Baltimore City for nearly a decade that the city’s rebirth, growth, redevelopment and repopulation are seriously jeopardized by the enormous difference in property taxes between the city and the surrounding county. City residential property taxes MUST be lowered, substantially, in order to bring residents back from the suburbs and keep the new residents within the city limits.
But this revelation — that they COULD be substantially lower if commercial property taxes were brought more into parity — is especially galling. The Sun opinion piece used three adjacent rowhouses on Park Avenue in Mt. Vernon as an example. These three houses were constructed simultaneously and have significant interior space. One is residential condos, valued together at $830,000 for tax purposes. The next two are residential rental apartments. So on the surface, you’d think that they should have similar values. Yet one is valued at $309,100 and the other is valued at $231,800. No where close.
Now, I know that rental apartments are probably not in as good condition as a renovated, condo conversion. But certainly those buildings in their current situation are worth more than THAT. The authors of the essay have researched the disparity and estimated that in the last six months of 2007, the “average underassessment” of 118 commercial properties that changed hands was over 23%, which would add up to nearly $75 million that the city is NOT getting. That’s only on 118 properties!
The Mayor may not be in a political position to piss off the commercial property owners given her own troubles right now, but certainly the citizens and the City Council should take note of this and demand action to take the political heat and spread it around a bit. Otherwise the citizens would be justified in rising up to force the issue.
