This is the time of year when people just sit inside during the dog days of a southern summer. High humidity, hot temperatures, and a city where not everything is air-conditioned all combine to slow down real estate activity. Even in good years, beach vacations and summer camps tend to slow down every business, and ours is no exception.
But this year is not so bad. That’s an incredibly good sign, given the market slump we’re coming out of. Federal homebuyer incentives are encouraging traffic through listings, and a wary sense of confidence that things are slowly getting better are having an overdue good effect. Cross your fingers that the fall market, which usually starts about Labor Day, will come roaring back.
I’d write more, but its just too hot. 
According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, Fannie Mae is in the process of tightening the requirements for condominium mortgages at the very moment in time when home lending of all stripes needs a boost. We are also about to see a flood of new condominium units come onto the market — those projects where financing had been obtained and construction begun before the lending meltdown took place — and these new rules will certainly make it more difficult for those developers to avoid bankruptcy.
First the specifics: Fannie Mae has always had restrictions on condo lending, in particular the requirement that the developer own less than half of the units in the building. That requirement will now be greatly increased, so that a developer will have to have sold at least 70% of the units before Fannie will guarantee the mortgage. The new rules will also require that a purchaser have at least 25% downpayment to avoid paying a closing cost penalty of .75% of the loan — no matter what the purchaser’s credit score. It keeps going. Fannie now will not back the loans in an existing condo association where 15% or more of the residents are behind on their condo fees, or where a single outside entity owns more than 10% of the units.
The mortgage giant defends these new policies as being careful with the taxpayer’s money by not taking responsibility for loans made in speculative or failing condominium developments, while ignoring the fact that these tightened rules make it more likely that currently healthy communities will be weakened. In many cities, condominiums are the least expensive option for home ownership and serve as the entryway for first time homebuyers, so these rules are making it tougher for new purchasers to enter the housing market and help drive down the excess inventory that has been built up over the last three years.
The inventory of unsold condo units will only swell as projects currently under construction start to open sales offices. According to the National Association of Realtors, the United States ended 2008 with a fourteen month supply of condominiums on the market, the highest backlog since they began keeping records ten years ago. In 2009, industry sources estimate that another 93,000 brand new units will enter the market across the country — a whopping 12,000 of them in the greater New York City market alone. Not only will these units be more difficult (if not impossible) to sell given the new guidelines, but even some of the pre-sold units may not settle since lenders now have these new rules in place that will “de-approve” buyers who thought they had a loan locked in. Never mind the fact that these units may also be worth significantly less than their pre-construction pricing a year or two ago.
Sometimes that Law of Unintended Consequences is a real bitch.
Its been awhile, but in many markets in the United States it is once again a no-brainer to own a home. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, the financial advantages of owning had been dwindling over the last few decades. Evaluated nationally, after tax mortgage payments have been averaging over 25% more than rental payments for nearly 26 years, according to a California real estate consultant firm. In 2006 some metro areas saw that grow to as much as 66% more. But, after the last few years of housing meltdown, average montly rent for the largest fifty metro areas was $1,045 while the after tax mortgage payment was $1,300, the narrowest gap (24%) since 2001. Some mortgage professionals have estimated that if mortgage interest rates fall to 4.5%, a number often seen as possible in the next few months, the gap will narrow even further to a 1998-era 14%.
A study by Moody’s Economy.com gives even better news. They have found eight markets around the country where home prices relative to rents are within 5% of historic levels, leading one of their economists to predict, “The bottom is coming into view.”
While we’ve heard that phrase before over the last few years, its nice to have a fresh reason to believe it might be true this time.
