Charm City Baltimore Real Estate: Baltimore, Maryland Real Estate & Homes

The Senate of the United States has passed legislation that not only extends the $8000 tax credit for first time homebuyers, but that expands the stimulus and offers a $6500 credit for current homeowners (who have been in their homes at least five years) to sell and move up into a new primary residence. Both of these would be available for contracts ratified by the end of April, 2010 and that settle before the end of June.

When I called for the extension and expansion of the credit in this blog a few months ago, not many of my colleagues gave the proposal much chance of actually coming to pass. Thank goodness there was one civic minded Republican and former Realtor, Johnny Isaacson from Georgia, who was able to give a bi-partisan impetus to the measure and who has championed it through. The House of Representatives now must pass the bill and send it to the President, who has indicated he will sign it.

Hopefully this will coax skittish buyers back into the market, and give encouragement to the many families who are sitting tight in their now-too-small homes to jump into the real estate market to move up.

Housing led us down into this mess, and in order for public confidence to stabilize and for people to start feeling better about the economy, housing must lead us out. This bill is good, public-spirited legislation that points out the constructive role that the government can play in economic affairs, if politicians could simply get their own ambitions out of the way. Its too much to hope that this effort will lead to other bi-partisan efforts. But that is what the country needs right now.

A drop in consumer confidence frustrates the market as autumn settles in and buyers disappear.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at charmcityrealestate [at] verizon [dot] net.

Most real estate and mortgage professionals I’m acquainted with have had a disappointing autumn, at least as far as first-time homebuyers are concerned. When Labor Day had passed, we all felt that the Fall Market would bring a crush of new buyers who would be eagerly cramming our hallways to get a look at homes so that they could settle in time to qualify for the government’s tax credit. And in the first two weeks of September it started out that way.

And then something happened. No one is sure exactly why, but the enthusiasm waned. Interested buyers decided to postpone their search, or just disappeared altogether. Then in October the statistics — which always lag the event — started to shed some light: consumer confidence was starting to drop again. What was the reason?

The economy was continuing to shed jobs in numbers that, although declining, were still worrysome. But that had been the case throughout the summer, when the numbers were much bigger, and the buyers were out in force then.

September was colder and wetter than normal, and put everyone in a wintertime huddled pose on the street. But would chilly days be enough to keep interested people from getting money back from Uncle Sam?

Controversy erupted over whether or not the tax credit would be extended into next year, or even broadened. But would that cause people to postpone, or to hurry up and make sure they got theirs — just in case it went away completely?

Or, was it something even more personal? Was it the fear that began to seep into people’s minds as epidemic reports started to fill the news, and more untimely swine flu deaths caught the attention of the media? Certainly, most first-time homebuyers are going to be in the age group that has been identified as the most susceptible to this particular flu bug.

Its unlikely that we will ever have really clear data. But I’m putting my money on the pigs.

It’s time for me to take a position on a controversial discussion beginning to take place around our offices, and in Washington.

Congress should act quickly to not just extend the Homebuyer Tax Credit, but it should also be expanded to cover more transactions and move beyond first-time homebuyers. Our marketplace is still very fragile. The real estate market, admittedly, was the starting point of this severe recession and needs to be supported so that the “tender green shoots” of recovery continue to grow and spread into next year. We will have new foreclosures entering the market, new short sales, and continuing economic distress long after the current expiration date of November 30. Its likely, in my opinion, that the housing market will shrink in the new year without this stimulus — which could jeopardize the health of the economy. The reasons for extension are perfectly clear.

The argument for expansion is equally compelling. First, the existing first-time buyer credit has jump started the under $250,000 segment of the marketplace, but in our area it has not had a similar effect on ‘move-up’ homes or ‘downsizing’ condominiums. To begin to spread the wealth, and help struggling homeowners out of economic distress, or the growing family feeling the pinch in a terrible economy, expansion of the tax credit to those segments would have an incredible effect on associated businesses and communities. There’s very little stimulus that would have the same impact for each dollar invested, not only in actual capital investments but also consumer sentiment, arresting the slide of home values and shoring them up against further upheaval.

In order to make the distribution of these monies is equitable, the eligible properties could be defined as those falling under the regionally adjusted FHA loan guidelines. That would effectively exclude investors and the very wealthy whose properties would require non-FHA ‘jumbo’ loans. This is an idea whose time is right now.

The Baltimore-Washington marketplace was awash in good news, even before Fed Chair Bernanke declared the recession over!

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at charmcityrealestate [at] verizon [dot] net.

The dog days are done. All of us who make a living in real estate are anticipating the Fall Market, and hoping that there will be one. We’ve had a nice run of very positive sales figures in the last few weeks. How much of that will continue into the Fall? How much of the activity we have seen is due to the Obama Administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers? There are many unanswered questions as we look toward the end of the year.

Most writers and colleagues are unanimous that the tax credit should be at least extended past its current expiration date at the end of November. Some go so far as to advocate for broadening it to all buyers, not just first timers.

For Baltimore, a recent trade article regarding commercial property was ominous. Baltimore was listed as one of the ten most likely markets to see a second meltdown in commercial real estate because of rising vacancy rates and more inventory, without a pickup in accompanying economic activity. As September arrives, we have many questions and concerns for Autumn. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that things go better than the doomsayers expect.

First in an ongoing series of podcasts, containing an overview of market conditions as we enter the Fall 2009 market.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at charmcityrealestate [at] verizon [dot] net.

The stakes have gotten higher in the last few weeks. We’ve had a series of positive news releases; statistics are showing a strong turnaround in the housing market. Here are a few more… sales volume in my one real estate office nearly doubled in July ’09 over July ’08. We’re now at the point where in a few weeks the traditional Autumn selling season will begin, and the questions start to rise: will buyers come back after their summer vacations? Will we see continued support and recovery in the housing market on a sustained basis, or was the spring surge in sales simply a function of long pent-up demand bursting out briefly because of the $8,000 tax credit?

Economist Robert Shiller, he of the Case-Shiller Index, is a gloomster at this point. In a recent interview with CNN Business Correspondent Poppy Harlow, Dr. Shiller gave all sorts of reasons why the current uptrends in housing might be a mirage that will melt away in the desert heat of August. This interview, given before last week’s unexpected good news on slowing GDP losses and slight drop in unemployment, was based in part on the common wisdom of what these reports were supposed to be, not on the surprising results they actually gave. Which, in my opinion, only goes to show that economists have a tendency to trust their own predictions much more than anyone else does.

Certainly there are tough times ahead. But, there is a growing sense that the worst is behind us, and that is something that I believe is true. Now is the time for renewed investment in real estate, and for first time homebuyers to get in there and grab that $8,000 credit. Like “Cash for Clunkers,” its a government rebate that is working to give short-term and immediate stimulus to a devastated segment of our economy. It should be renewed to last into next year.

This is the time of year when people just sit inside during the dog days of a southern summer. High humidity, hot temperatures, and a city where not everything is air-conditioned all combine to slow down real estate activity. Even in good years, beach vacations and summer camps tend to slow down every business, and ours is no exception.

But this year is not so bad. That’s an incredibly good sign, given the market slump we’re coming out of. Federal homebuyer incentives are encouraging traffic through listings, and a wary sense of confidence that things are slowly getting better are having an overdue good effect. Cross your fingers that the fall market, which usually starts about Labor Day, will come roaring back.

I’d write more, but its just too hot.

I don’t usually lift large sections from local media, but this article in the Baltimore Business Journal by Rachel Bernstein, caught my eye:

Baltimore was named one of the top cities for young professionals to work in, based on cost of living, educational opportunities and the city’s nightlife.

The survey was conducted by Madison, Wisc.-based Next Generation Consulting. The report broke down cities into three population categories — Baltimore in the largest city category for those with more than 500,000 people — and evaluated them based on assets the report deemed as important to 20 to 40 year olds.

Among the other cities in Baltimore’s category, San Francisco was named No. 1. Baltimore was named No. 7, beating out Portland, Ore., New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles.

The seven indexes of a top city, or “Next City,” are average earnings, dedication to education, cleanliness of the city, around town, nightlife, cost of lifestyle and safety and diversity of the
population, according to Next Generation Consulting.

Baltimore residents have historically had an inferiority complex about their city compared to their more cosmopolitan neighbors in Philadelphia and Washington. But in the last ten years, the city skyline has grown and spread across acres of what once were parking lots and hinterlands. Neighborhoods have revitalized, and a burgeoning arts and entertainment scene has developed — whether its theatre in Mt. Vernon, fine arts and art galleries in Fells Point and downtown, or live music in Fells Point. Baltimore now has one of the most heavily populated downtown areas among cities its size, with the re-development of old office buildings into modern apartments and condos and the return of grocery stores and even big box retail to the Inner Harbor. And never forget about the added life that the tens of millions of Inner Harbor visitors, sports fans, half-dozen new hotels, and an expanded convention center bring to the city.

Baltimore’s affordable housing certainly provides one of the most important boosts to this type of favorable publicity. People can afford to live here, and live well. That’s a message that really needs to be told, and its studies like this that will tell it better than an ad campaign or promotional gimmicks that the public doesn’t always trust to be accurate. Young, first-time homebuyers have been the rock on which the budding recovery of our housing market is being built — the very buyers that are covered in this survey. The timing couldn’t be better for this type of news.

Baltimore is moving from the classification of “big small city” to “small big city”  and its about time.