Charm City Baltimore Real Estate: Baltimore, Maryland Real Estate & Homes

The dog days are done. All of us who make a living in real estate are anticipating the Fall Market, and hoping that there will be one. We’ve had a nice run of very positive sales figures in the last few weeks. How much of that will continue into the Fall? How much of the activity we have seen is due to the Obama Administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers? There are many unanswered questions as we look toward the end of the year.

Most writers and colleagues are unanimous that the tax credit should be at least extended past its current expiration date at the end of November. Some go so far as to advocate for broadening it to all buyers, not just first timers.

For Baltimore, a recent trade article regarding commercial property was ominous. Baltimore was listed as one of the ten most likely markets to see a second meltdown in commercial real estate because of rising vacancy rates and more inventory, without a pickup in accompanying economic activity. As September arrives, we have many questions and concerns for Autumn. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that things go better than the doomsayers expect.

Second of three podcasts presenting an overview of the material presented at an in-person buyer seminar. In this episode: searching for the right home and writing the offer to purchase.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

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Last of three podcasts presenting an overview of the material presented at an in-person buyer seminar. In this episode: the period between contract signing and settlement day.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

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First in the Mortgage Financing series of podcasts. In this edition, guest podcaster Richard Pazornik of SunTrust Mortgage talks about the loan application process, how to prepare for it, and what to expect.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

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Second in the Mortgage Financing series of podcasts. In this edition, guest podcaster Tom Latta of Prosperity Mortgage talks about the choice of loan product, downpayment options, and other sources for financial assistance.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

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First in an ongoing series of podcasts, containing an overview of market conditions as we enter the Fall 2009 market.

For a transcript of this podcast, please email me at .

The stakes have gotten higher in the last few weeks. We’ve had a series of positive news releases; statistics are showing a strong turnaround in the housing market. Here are a few more… sales volume in my one real estate office nearly doubled in July ’09 over July ’08. We’re now at the point where in a few weeks the traditional Autumn selling season will begin, and the questions start to rise: will buyers come back after their summer vacations? Will we see continued support and recovery in the housing market on a sustained basis, or was the spring surge in sales simply a function of long pent-up demand bursting out briefly because of the $8,000 tax credit?

Economist Robert Shiller, he of the Case-Shiller Index, is a gloomster at this point. In a recent interview with CNN Business Correspondent Poppy Harlow, Dr. Shiller gave all sorts of reasons why the current uptrends in housing might be a mirage that will melt away in the desert heat of August. This interview, given before last week’s unexpected good news on slowing GDP losses and slight drop in unemployment, was based in part on the common wisdom of what these reports were supposed to be, not on the surprising results they actually gave. Which, in my opinion, only goes to show that economists have a tendency to trust their own predictions much more than anyone else does.

Certainly there are tough times ahead. But, there is a growing sense that the worst is behind us, and that is something that I believe is true. Now is the time for renewed investment in real estate, and for first time homebuyers to get in there and grab that $8,000 credit. Like “Cash for Clunkers,” its a government rebate that is working to give short-term and immediate stimulus to a devastated segment of our economy. It should be renewed to last into next year.

This is the time of year when people just sit inside during the dog days of a southern summer. High humidity, hot temperatures, and a city where not everything is air-conditioned all combine to slow down real estate activity. Even in good years, beach vacations and summer camps tend to slow down every business, and ours is no exception.

But this year is not so bad. That’s an incredibly good sign, given the market slump we’re coming out of. Federal homebuyer incentives are encouraging traffic through listings, and a wary sense of confidence that things are slowly getting better are having an overdue good effect. Cross your fingers that the fall market, which usually starts about Labor Day, will come roaring back.

I’d write more, but its just too hot.

I don’t usually lift large sections from local media, but this article in the Baltimore Business Journal by Rachel Bernstein, caught my eye:

Baltimore was named one of the top cities for young professionals to work in, based on cost of living, educational opportunities and the city’s nightlife.

The survey was conducted by Madison, Wisc.-based Next Generation Consulting. The report broke down cities into three population categories — Baltimore in the largest city category for those with more than 500,000 people — and evaluated them based on assets the report deemed as important to 20 to 40 year olds.

Among the other cities in Baltimore’s category, San Francisco was named No. 1. Baltimore was named No. 7, beating out Portland, Ore., New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles.

The seven indexes of a top city, or “Next City,” are average earnings, dedication to education, cleanliness of the city, around town, nightlife, cost of lifestyle and safety and diversity of the
population, according to Next Generation Consulting.

Baltimore residents have historically had an inferiority complex about their city compared to their more cosmopolitan neighbors in Philadelphia and Washington. But in the last ten years, the city skyline has grown and spread across acres of what once were parking lots and hinterlands. Neighborhoods have revitalized, and a burgeoning arts and entertainment scene has developed — whether its theatre in Mt. Vernon, fine arts and art galleries in Fells Point and downtown, or live music in Fells Point. Baltimore now has one of the most heavily populated downtown areas among cities its size, with the re-development of old office buildings into modern apartments and condos and the return of grocery stores and even big box retail to the Inner Harbor. And never forget about the added life that the tens of millions of Inner Harbor visitors, sports fans, half-dozen new hotels, and an expanded convention center bring to the city.

Baltimore’s affordable housing certainly provides one of the most important boosts to this type of favorable publicity. People can afford to live here, and live well. That’s a message that really needs to be told, and its studies like this that will tell it better than an ad campaign or promotional gimmicks that the public doesn’t always trust to be accurate. Young, first-time homebuyers have been the rock on which the budding recovery of our housing market is being built — the very buyers that are covered in this survey. The timing couldn’t be better for this type of news.

Baltimore is moving from the classification of “big small city” to “small big city”  and its about time.

Recent economic statistics and recent opinion polls are showing a peculiar dissonance in the public mind.

On one hand, economic news lately has been predominantly positive. Unemployment, while bad, has not risen as fast as had been predicted and there is even some evidence that its slowing and may be in the process of turning around. Housing news has been (and I feel will continue to be) positive, as residential resales and new home construction have both increased at surprising rates this spring. Even media outlets that tend to look on the dark side all the time (are you listening, Baltimore SUN?) have written headline stories on the positive trends that are developing. It would seem that economic stimulus, an increase in positive consumer sentiment, and other factors are turning this recession faster than had been predicted just six months ago. Great news, right?

Then how can the news be explained that a growing number of people are dissatisfied with the performance of the new administration and are losing confidence that the stimulus and the new government spending, regulation and other initiatives aimed at the recession will work? It would seem that the evidence is all around them, that it will — and is working — right now.

I have a couple of theories. First is simply that as a nation our ability to wait for good things has been severely diminished over the last 30 years. If its hard, if it takes awhile, and if it requires personal sacrifice, we don’t like it. We lose patience quickly, and blame the very people whose policies and principles are necessary to achieve the goal. Second, as a body politic, we have not yet managed to shake the poisonous habit of the last decade of shouting doom and gloom and twisting reality simply to fashion a hammer with which to beat up the other side. This has begun to achieve Orwellian dimensions… no matter the reality, no matter the truth… simply say the lie often enough and some people will believe it. And as more people join the Falsehood Chorus, more people believe. Passionately.

In my own personal life, I’ve seen friends who I have always credited with being smart, reasonable people become raving lunatics by repeating things that they have heard that are simply ridiculous. And believing them.

This gives me unease, both for the future of the efforts to curb this recession and return us to economic health, and for the future of the country. But as long as the public rewards the liars, the lunatics, the hatemongers, the loud and bombastic over the truth seekers and the reasonable explainers… we will be condemned to travel the wrong paths.