July, 2008

If You Build It…

There are some morsels of good news, even encouraging trends, in the current housing downturn. As the inventory of unsold Mini-Mansions on tiny lots that used to be cornfields grows, and major builders tighten their belts and lower profit forecasts, there is emerging a trend toward smaller, community style, energy efficient homes. No, this is not the Disney-esque Plantation, Florida model of community where Stepford wives patrol the sidewalks with big smiles.

A recent Wall Street Journal article reported the success of two developers in the Pacific Northwest who have taken to designing 1,000 square foot cottages, on small town-size lots. Over the last ten years, these pioneers have made a good deal of money building about fifty Craftsman-style cottages, ranging anywhere between 800-1,500 square feet. Think 1920s-style “bungalow courtyards.” These homes, all within a comfortable commuting distance to Seattle, were built in various communities and surrounding a “commons” shared by all the residents.

They can’t build them fast enough.

Who is buying these? Certainly NOT first time homebuyers, since they are significantly more expensive per square foot than the usual tract mansion. In many cases, they are refugees from the modern American suburb, willing to downsize significantly to be able to buy into a real community, where people interact with their neighbors and they can lessen their carbon footprint. Not to mention lowering their energy usage and utility bills.

Builders in other parts of the country are taking notice. Boston and Indianapolis are on track to get similar developments in the coming months, as the children of the baby boom start to look for new ways to organize society and step back from the expansive post-WWII style of suburbs that chew up forest and farmland at ridiculous rates, cause an expansion of utilities and infrastructure that become expensive to maintain and use, and cost time and money in commuting longer distances.

If this disruption in the housing market and the concurrent rise in energy prices can have the effect of making dramatic changes in the way America houses its population, then perhaps some of the pain will have been worthwhile.

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Accurate Stats Would Help

We’ve been told for years that our society has become too statistic based, and that the business-governmental apparatus that collects information on all of us is too large, too intrusive and overly bureaucratic. And in some aspects of life, I think that’s absolutely true. So its a total shock when you come across situations where we are completely incapable of getting a clear picture of what is going on. Certainly the current scare about the source of the salmonella outbreak is one of these cases. Two months into it, we have no clue about the source of the little nasties, and an entire agricultural industry is in shambles because of early — incorrect, we think (?) — guesses.

You’ll be surprised to know that this applies to the foreclosure crisis. An article in today’s Wall Street Journal (Friday, July 18, 2008) reports that there are many contradictory statistics about the “Mortgage Mess.” Three major companies publish data on mortgage foreclosures, but the way that they collect it and the frequency with which they take their surveys has a major effect on how the data is interpreted. There is NO federal regulator charged with regulating mortgage brokers and originations; no one collecting the data for the government, so the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee (you know, the committee drafting legislation on the issue!) is reliant upon these three companies and their confusing information.

In the words of the Journal’s reporter, Carl Bialik, “All the data providers agree that foreclosures have been increasing, but details matter in deciding which kinds of loans, in which places, are at highest risk.” The track record of some of these companies’ press releases is shoddy. Again, quoting from Mr. Bialik, “Last July, the system” employed by the best known of the companies, RealtyTrac, “stumbled in Georgia, counting some properties multiple times. The company had said filings rose 75%, but revised that figure to 14%.” Oops.

What do you bet that this sharp downward revision to 14% didn’t get the same screaming above-the-fold headline that the original shocking 75% figure did?

The companies also do not agree on where the mortgage hot spots are. Several states appear on all three companies’ “top five” lists, although their ranking varies. But other states pop up on some and not others. The state of Colorado, for instance, regularly appears at or near the top of RealtyTrac’s recent rankings, but squarely in the middle of the pack on the other two company’s rankings. The Mortgage Bankers Association complies its lists quarterly, so by the time its information is released the data is old news. RealtyTrac, by comparison, races its monthly data out in 8 or 9 days — perhaps the reason it can be so dramatically revised. The third company involved is First American CoreLogic, which doesn’t race its data out and doesn’t issue press releases.

Let’s hope that cool, competent analysis of accurate data results in the best legislation possible to deal with our impending foreclosure crisis.

Pshheft. Who am I kidding?!

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The Fannie/Freddie Follies

The current uproar of recriminations over the supposed financial instability of FannieMae and FreddieMac — the two pillars of America’s residential mortgage industry — is designed to obscure the growing problems in the private banks and lending institutions who have made a colossal mess out of our financial system. Its so much easier to take issue with the way the Federal Government has organized the semi-public institutions. And its so unpleasant for business-oriented Republican politicians to admit that the lack of regulation and public oversight in the financial markets has AGAIN led do a massive failure. This one may just dwarf the financial mess that the LAST Bush presidency created.

The fact is that human nature tends to excess. When you can make a gazillion dollars by bending time-honored and respected lending rules, why not bend them a little further and make a billion gazillion dollars, eh? Government in a democratic society is supposed to rein in the excess and even out the greed of human nature. When “small government” Republicans get in power, they throw rules to the wind and pray to the gods of the free market to take care of it. This is the result.

We can at least hope that new rules will be written that will be even more effective than the last. Perhaps that’s too optimistic, but I will always tend toward the healthy balance of rule, regulation and invention. Because my living, my career, my livelihood depends upon this mess getting sorted out and put right, as soon as possible. So does the economic stability of millions of similar middle-class Americans who just want to make sure that they can have access to their deposits and qualify for a mortgage. Its not that much to ask of a government.

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